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Analyst Says Scottish IndyRef Re-Run Blocked by BoJo Could be Risky for SNP_我的网站

一 |     　　本周沪指下跌0.56%，深证成指下跌1.81%，创业板指下跌2.23%。下周A股将如何运行？我们汇总了各大机构的最新投资策略，供投资者参考。
　　开源策略：A股风险偏好受到扰动 再平衡仍是主旋律 继续重点推荐小微盘　　本周创业板、科创50单日调整均超过6%，价格层面的风险已经快速释放，但筹码调整仍需时间。    Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。后续市场更可能进入反复震荡、逐步完成筹码交换的阶段，短期反弹仍可以积极参与，但在交易集中度明显下降以前，反弹的空间和持续性不宜给出过高预期。拥挤消化过程中，再平衡仍然是当前最重要的市场结构，继续重点推荐中证2000和万得微盘股。行业层面，继续关注有色、基础化工、新能源、农业、医药，以及造船等部分中游制造；高波动环境下，高股息资产虽然收益弹性有限，但风险收益比优势进一步体现，仍具有较高的组合配置价值。　　申万宏源：二次探底兑现 A股9月反弹延续　　短期市场走势符合我们AI产业链重拾强势“四步走”推演。超跌反弹后，AI产业扰动再次出现，叠加了美债收益率高企担忧，出现了二次探底行情。

二 | 中短期判断不变，反弹可能延续到9月下旬，行稳致远政策发力，长中短期乐观预期可能集中发酵，这可能才是本轮反弹行情的高点。9月反弹延续，结构选择重点是寻找超跌反弹中，能够更大程度上修复跌幅的方向。AI链内部更加关注非机构重仓方向，国产算力链和AI小盘股“中期掩护短期”。另外，全球算力链中，景气向下拐点出现较晚，短期有新增催化的方向，也容易兑现高弹性，典型是存储和PCB，这些产业链也需挖掘新的算力通胀细分和新标的。

三 | 　　华金证券：A股短期延续震荡筑底趋势 逢低配置科技成长、部分周期和消费等行业　　短期经济和盈利可能延续修复趋势。

四 | 一是短期经济可能延续修复趋势：首先，出口短期可能维持较高增速；其次，短期地产投资增速可能继续偏弱，基建投资增速可能有所企稳，高新技术行业制造业投资增速可能继续回升；最后，短期消费增速可能企稳有所回升。

五 | 二是短期企业盈利可能继续回升：首先，短期工业企业利润增速可能继续回升；其次，A股中报盈利增速较一季报可能继续回升。短期继续逢低配置科技成长、部分周期和消费等行业。　　天风证券：本轮政策底已逐步显现 长线资金正积极入场布局　　当前A股指数较前期调整后，估值性价比有所改善。

六 | 与此同时，监管层对市场动态保持高度关注，长线资金正积极入场布局。基于这些积极信号，我们认为本轮政策底已逐步显现，后续需密切关注政策底向市场底传导的节奏与力度。

七 | 行情后半段，业绩验证锚与第二主线的分化核心取决于高频验证指标的清晰程度，后期市场是否能从抱团业绩验证锚切换到第二曲线在于验证变量而不是想象空间。

八 | 　　浙商策略：市场连续反弹之后短暂步入调整 建议中线仓位继续持有　　展望后市，尽管市场在连续反弹之后短暂步入调整，但从时间-结构关系上来讲，我们依旧认为中线反弹尚未结束，目前只是在“进二退一”的“退一”过程中，整理后依然还有继续反弹的可能性，因此整体上无需对市场过分悲观。行业方面，前期推荐的创新药近期涨幅较大，可以逢低捡漏但不能随意追高；证券、恒生科技近期逐步完成“退一”过程，可以逢低参与，同期传媒、计算机、中字头也可以采取类似思路；此外，近期地产政策频出，相关标的可以适度加以关注。　　银河策略：扰动与验证交织 聚焦业绩兑现度高的龙头标的　　短期指数层面仍受海外波动、筹码结构扰动而出现震荡反复，板块之间的博弈与再平衡持续。

九 | 但外部冲击更多体现为阶段性扰动，国内政策信号与产业主线逻辑并未动摇。放眼三季度后半程，行情将以结构性轮动修复为主，建议围绕政策主线、景气验证方向把握结构性机会。景气成长验证主线，立足“六张网”建设新基建核心方向，聚焦业绩兑现度高的龙头标的，关注半导体及产业链、通信设备、储能/电力配套、人形机器人、商业航天等。　　方正策略：静待新的布局机会 继续关注三方面配置机会　　当前阶段，可能需要静待市场新的布局机会出现，虽然市场通过上周三的大幅下跌释放了大部分风险，但外部环境方面油价持续上行使得美联储政策抉择骑虎难下，美债压力难言消除，此外，经济逐步进入旺季，能源价格高企对于基本面有一定压制作用，7月政治局会议之后政策的效果需要验证，经济旺季不旺的风险需要重视。逢低布局，继续关注三方面配置机会，进入中报业绩披露窗口期，科技股内部向能涨价、能扩量的细分方向倾斜，包括海外算力中拥挤度不高、筹码结构较好的核心标的。　　兴业证券：9月将是科技重要的决胜窗口 配置上继续围绕景气线索　　9-10月，随着油价阶段性回落、叠加市场对26年加息预期的重新定价，美国长债利率有望见顶回落。对于科技股而言，将是继7月微观流动性压力缓和后，宏观流动性改善所提供的第二次分母端逻辑支撑，有望为行情再度凝聚共识提供有利契机，届时将迎来科技板块重要的决胜窗口。配置上，景气仍是核心线索。第一，经历此前估值和筹码的消化后，8月以来景气的β已经回归，业绩对股价的支撑力恢复；第二，全球利率中枢抬升后，市场在结构的选择上也将更加聚焦景气确定性；第三，下周A股进入密集中报正式业绩披露期、海外科技巨头也即将迎来财报的验证。　　中信证券：科技股近期的调整是AI相关股票的远期定价问题　　科技股近期的调整不能简单归因于美国长债利率高企，调整的背后是AI相关股票的远期定价问题，A股短期内的资金结构决定了市场博弈的复杂性还在提升，这种震荡市阶段要控制心理预期，避免过多的宏大叙事。配置策略上，在科技板块内部，建议借着AI涨价品种反弹，及时向核心资产（如燃气轮机、晶圆制造平台、半导体设备等）调仓，更加重视“量的确定性”，审慎对待“价的爆发性”。对于非科技板块，建议重点增配能化、有色、创新药以及有出海潜力的头部券商。　　中泰策略：回调如期启动 科技进入右侧配置窗口　　8月中下旬回调如期启动，市场冲高回落后已缩量企稳，9月重新转强的中期判断维持不变。我们前期持续提示8月中下旬市场与科技将进入回踩，幅度可控，形态接近强势震荡。

十 | 本周调整集中于单日完成，成交额急跌后明显收敛；8月以来主要宽基指数仍普遍录得正收益，本轮回吐主要消化8月上旬的快速拉升，趋势并未走坏。本轮回调提供了右侧加仓机会，配置重点仍在科技制造与有色，中期可利用调整增配科创50、国产半导体设备、有色和黄金。进入9月后，如果AI收入担忧及美联储加息预期进一步改善，科创50仍或有趋势性的修复。（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。

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